In a development with implications for China's work force and economic growth, a new study says more than 25% of adults in the country are overweight or obese and that the number could double over the next 20 years.

    The report, based on data collected from 20,000 patients in China over the past 15 years, says obesity has increased 1.2% a year among men in that time -- higher than the rate for adult men in the U.S., U.K. and Australia.

    With the population at 1.3 billion, that means an additional 11 million Chinese adults are becoming overweight or obese every year. In addition, 12 million to 14 million adults are becoming at risk for diabetes and hypertension annually, says study author Barry Popkin, director of the obesity center and professor of global nutrition at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.

    'When you have this many people becoming diabetic and hypertensive, you think about the health-care costs and it's pretty staggering,' says Dr. Popkin. The study is set to be published today in the health policy journal Health Affairs.

    The study suggests that the problem may be accelerating. And the reasons for the rise in obesity isn't because of increased consumption of fast food or other Western foods in China, Dr. Popkin says. Rather, improving living standards mean that growing numbers of Chinese can now afford vegetable oil, beef and dairy-food sources that until recently had been too costly. A more sedentary lifestyle for many Chinese plays an important role as well.

    Obesity-related costs are likely to lead not only to drastic increases in direct medical costs, but also to indirect costs like decreased worker productivity and absenteeism.

    Health-care costs could also have implications for companies looking to invest in China. Many companies provide medical care for workers, and thus they could end up footing much of the bill for obesity-related costs, Dr. Popkin says.

    Those costs could prompt companies to invest in less-costly markets, such as Vietnam, and ultimately slow the Chinese economy. 'U.S. labor costs skyrocketed and people are moving away from investing here,' says Dr. Popkin. 'It's the same issue in China.'

    一項新的研究稱，中國有超過四分之一的成人超重或患有肥胖癥，這個數字在未來20年里還可能增加一倍。這種變化可能對中國的勞動力和經濟增長產生影響。

    這份報告是根據過去15年里從中國2萬名患者中搜集的數據編寫的。報告稱，在此期間成年男性中的肥胖癥患者每年平均增長1.2%，這個增幅超過了美國、英國和澳大利亞。

    中國共有13億人口，這就意味著中國成年人中每年新增超重或肥胖癥人口1,100萬人。此外，這項研究的作者、北卡羅納大學肥胖癥中心主任和全球營養學教授巴里•波普金(Barry Popkin)表示，中國每年還有1,200萬至1,400萬成年人存在患有糖尿病和高血壓的風險。

    波普金說，當許多人身患糖尿病和高血壓時，你就不能不考慮到醫療成本，而且這個數額可能非常巨大。這份研究報告將發表在周二出版的美國《保健事務》(Health Affairs)雜志上。

    研究顯示，這個問題可能還會加速發展。波普金稱，肥胖人群增加的原因不是由于中國人消費的快餐食品或其它西式食品的增加，而是由于生活水平的提高讓越來越多的中國人現在能夠買得起不久前還顯得過于昂貴的植物油、牛肉和奶制品了。許多中國人久坐不動的生活方式也起到了重要的作用。

    與肥胖有關的問題不僅可能導致直接醫療費用的大幅增加，還會產生員工生產率下降和缺勤等間接成本。

    醫療成本也是有意在中國投資的公司應該考慮的問題。波普金說，許多公司都為工人提供醫療保險，因此它們與員工肥胖問題有關的開支可能增加。

    這些開支可能促使公司投資于越南等成本較低的市場，最終導致中國經濟放緩。波普金說，美國的勞動力成本大幅上升，人們已越來越不愿意在美國投資。中國同樣面臨這個問題。