英智庫：伊拉克瀕臨瓦解 (British Think Tank: Iraq on Verge of Collapse)

英國一個研究機構發(fā)表一份報告警告說，伊拉克面臨明顯的國家瓦解和分裂的可能性。設在倫敦的“查塔姆研究所”發(fā)表的報告說，伊拉克政府只是伊拉克眾多“國家型”因素中的一個，已經(jīng)很大程度上毫無權威，并且在許多地區(qū)毫無作用。

這份簡報的起草者斯坦斯菲爾德說，伊拉克不是有“一場內(nèi)戰(zhàn)，而是有很多場內(nèi)戰(zhàn)和反叛行動”。盡管報告認為，最近的軍事戰(zhàn)術沒有能夠減少暴力活動，不過報告還是預測，伊拉克保安部隊無法應對多國部隊撤離的局面。

這個外交政策智庫敦促美國和英國采取重大戰(zhàn)略改變，建議主動接觸同遜尼派和激進的什葉派教士薩德爾，解決聯(lián)邦制問題和石油收入分配等問題。

A British research institute has published a report warning that Iraq faces the distinct possibility of collapse and fragmentation. The report by London-based Chatham House argues that the Iraqi government is only one of many "state-like" actors in the country and is already largely powerless and irrelevant in many areas.

The briefing paper's author, Gareth Stansfield, says that "there is not 'a' civil war in Iraq, but many civil wars and insurgencies." Although the report finds that recent military tactics have failed to decrease violence, it also predicts that Iraq's security forces would be unable to cope with the withdrawal of multinational forces.

The foreign policy think tank urges a radical change in U.S. and British strategy. It recommends reaching out to Sunnis and radical Shi'ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr and addressing issues of federalism and the allocation of oil revenues.